Election Musings

This was a tight and difficult election for many Americans, with an unexpectedly large portion of whom were compelled to vote for the first time.  Voters of all ages and backgrounds.  We had eight years of Obama; followed by four years of Trump.  I've advised multiple of their own advisers.  They are two different personalities, both with strengths and weaknesses. 

We also have a country silently seeing declining living standards in recent decades. Social inequity.  Plenty of blame to go around.  At the heart of our political differences, I see the challenge of how to continuously re-allocate the spoils of a shrinking pie.

It's difficult for Americans to go to the polling booth.  Both hopeful and petrified.  A President who cared about the country, until a virus came through.  Another candidate forced to live up to invented personal branding of "best mid-size" or "better of two evils".  And no one really knows what, if anything, he'll be able to accomplish other than pass four critical years ahead.

Now, let's discuss the statistics of polling...

Polling is inherently flawed.  This is something discussed in my new book Colors and Numbers [concepts of Busted Rulers, and Compounded Errors] and throughout this website [which I have numerously been interviewed about].  Both parties don't fully understand how to use polling, and so they are misusing this low-grade information in different ways.

Democrats tend to become easily fooled and complacent when they see their biased polls always giving them a lead.  Republicans point to 2016 as a rationale to not consider polls at all.  It's both of their faults for leaving a treacherous event of campaigning for elections, to even more chance than it needs be.  Can't understand polls, yet expect to usher a country into a digital age.

So that takes us to the concept of luck.  And there is twice as much of it involved than most of the people I interact with realize.  2020, 2016, etc.

So when a MSM pollster claims a 90% for Biden, a 75% for a Blue Senate, and a 95% for a Blue House... Then the results are hedged until there is [luckily] barely a win for Biden, and no Blue Senate, and now catastrophic losses for a Blue House outcome... This can only be chalked up to a poor pollster being the ambassador of poor polling science.

It is not about "bad polls".

Terrible artist, don't go around blaming supplies and materials.  It is shameful that anyone falls for that excuse at failure.  It's on par to blaming Russians, or voter's husbands, etc.  Yet it occurs.

At the time of this writing, 3/4 or so of all the useful polling information is in. Biden looks very close to win, though there will be plenty of litigation over closely contested Electorates anyway. 

But a close call is also simply that.  It reflects a somewhat feckless Trump campaign [despite success in gaining millions more voters and a more narrow vote margin this go around].  A changing America.  It also reflects Americans overwhelmingly in not always as supportive of the Black Lives Matter political/race agenda, as Liberals assume on some metrics.  The election was so close that coronavirus and Trump's poor handling of this extraordinary challenge, pretty much drove broad exit polling data.  If the election were a year ago [pre COVID-19] and Trump may have pulled off a Red Wave!

And we don't need to look to future elections to validate this.  Simply look at the large loss-vs-forecasts for Democrats, in both the Senate and in the House.  Liberals had the advantage of money, and social media favoritism, on their side.  And yet failed to deliver efficiently.

Now I am proud of my family and friends who voted [and I helped register and complete ballots for a few family who I knew wanted to vote differently than me].  I also pray for this country, which is still deeply divided and has yet to learn the underlying social problems that are still pulling us apart.

Polarization is always something that starts not at the top.  We all want better role models in our Presidents.  Polarization starts in the mirror.

I've only voted twice in my life (once D and once R), and have worked at high levels in Washington on major social and multi-faceted risk issues. That's my civic contribution other than other education resources I provide.  All of us contribute to society differently.

I also deeply care about this country; which is also my birth home, and the direction of things.  In addition to being an innovation mecca that has always done well by me, it allows a large and free election.  And I believe that the collective decision we all make is the most optimal one [and not despite of, but because of how it oscillates turns between parties over time].

Obviously I want to congratulate Liberals and Biden voters on this Election.  There is unique responsibility now.  But I also equally want to congratulate all American voters, for doing what they can between now and next election to be empathetic, model citizens.  The power is within you to make profound differences in your communities, and have an impact globally.

And to be blunt, time is running out.  We have all taken a step back, and now we need to step up more than ever.  Even the winning political parties retain their flaws.  Their bias.  Their mistrust.  Their hate.

But we need to be humble.  Lead not through riots.  But by example.  America's future [as we know it] is hanging perilously as the world sees how vulnerable we are to chaos.