Getting a flood of text messages about probabilities at this stage of the count, so let me talk about four islands of probability.
1. Winning remaining counts
Biden's probability of winning at least one more state
= Trump's probability of losing the 4 remaining states
= 50%^4 [clearly there are many nuances here but they are clearly too close as well]
= 6-7%
[statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2020/11/election-musings.html, twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1324448581646979075]
2. Statistical recount
Trump's probability of winning via statistical recount
= [Probability of Trump losing current count]*[Probability of recount]
= 94%*[Probability of flipping 3 of 7 state recount, each at 17% success]
= 94%*8%
= 7%-8%
[twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1324787601832873986]
3. Fraud
Trump's probability of winning through fraud investigation
= Not fully processed yet [includes areas of Benford's law, Death matches, prior instances/convictions, former survey prior's, etc.]
[we have some data already, for example--> twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1324972518902542336 and twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/1325124893214584837]
4. Other legal challenges
Currently outside of probability theory, unless there is a large data sample that is needed to go with it. Also there are other ancillary probabilities such as faithless electorates, etc.
Bottom Line
The overall probability of Trump winning is likely in the 15%-20% range. The overall probability of Biden winning is likely in the 80%-85% range.
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