Update: You can now enjoy our solution to this "enduring the
desert" risk probability problem and connect it to Chapter 2 of our Statistics Topics book. Myriad equivalents to life experiences; feel free to share. https://www.amazon.com/Statistics-Topics-Salil-Mehta/dp/1499273533
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMZJgqvE_V4&feature=youtu.be&t=3m23s
So you find yourself awaken in the middle of a desert, with only 55h of water to survive on. You think your nearest help is at your origin within 30h. Unsure though East, or West. Based on gut, you first head East 20h; no luck.
Now, what do YOU do?
This is one of our most thought-provoking probability problem, with robust analogs for how each of us might relate to the myriad other risk decisions encountered in everyday life! Join over a hundred other people who have taken the poll across social media, including friendly celebrities.
We will review the solution on our YouTube channel in a couple days. Meanwhile, please see this dossier of clues, and among many other things consider whether this is related to the Monty Hall problem (discussed in chapter 2 of our Statistics Topics book).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lMZJgqvE_V4&feature=youtu.be&t=3m23s
So you find yourself awaken in the middle of a desert, with only 55h of water to survive on. You think your nearest help is at your origin within 30h. Unsure though East, or West. Based on gut, you first head East 20h; no luck.
A] Persist East for 10h more
B] Turn around & head West for 35h
This is one of our most thought-provoking probability problem, with robust analogs for how each of us might relate to the myriad other risk decisions encountered in everyday life! Join over a hundred other people who have taken the poll across social media, including friendly celebrities.
We will review the solution on our YouTube channel in a couple days. Meanwhile, please see this dossier of clues, and among many other things consider whether this is related to the Monty Hall problem (discussed in chapter 2 of our Statistics Topics book).
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