Note: recent article on the topic is here.
Adjusting our spline-like model, weighting for most reliable recent polls, we see that most President Trump approval ratings likely did rise (from clearly depressed levels) post-Syria missile strikes. This incorporates more than a 1/2 dozen of the largest surveying organizations, and all had recent track records under the Obama Administration to contrast manifold performance issues against. Now given the quite high designed polling errors (so for any one poll there is an even larger standard error!), when predicting for early-summer 2017, we still see that there's a 50/50 chance for the President to intrinsically earn either a record high (or record low) approval rating! It will truly be a crucial do-or-die summer, which will determine and set much of the future course of his 4 or 8 year term(s) in office. Hoping he delivers -soon- what he knows he has to.
Adjusting our spline-like model, weighting for most reliable recent polls, we see that most President Trump approval ratings likely did rise (from clearly depressed levels) post-Syria missile strikes. This incorporates more than a 1/2 dozen of the largest surveying organizations, and all had recent track records under the Obama Administration to contrast manifold performance issues against. Now given the quite high designed polling errors (so for any one poll there is an even larger standard error!), when predicting for early-summer 2017, we still see that there's a 50/50 chance for the President to intrinsically earn either a record high (or record low) approval rating! It will truly be a crucial do-or-die summer, which will determine and set much of the future course of his 4 or 8 year term(s) in office. Hoping he delivers -soon- what he knows he has to.
In the chart above, we see thinner confidence bars to represent the lack of the complete polling data, since the Syrian missle strikes on April 6. See these links again for more polling analysis.
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