We've numerously discussed, on this statistics website, mortality odds -particularly related to homicide. In recent news we've seen Blacks have been in the spotlight for violence statistics. Whether we looked at crime in Congressman John Lewis' Atlanta district, or former Justice chief Loretta Lynch's report on police using excessive force in Mayor Emmanuel's Chicago, or the murder of police themselves nationally, or changes in suicides since the global financial crisis, or lastly terrorism. Examining these mortality odds is a complicated actuarial effort, complicated by the need to aggregate a high level of local and national census and enforcement data. Then process that information to make it comparable across local cities. All of which we've done here. So one might know for example, that the global murder rate is 7.6 (per 100,000), or 0.008%, but how does that relate to someone living right now in Chicago? Turns out, not very well. And while the United States has a homicide rate that's half the global rate, we see great heterogeneity across the largest U.S. cities. In Chicago, the murder rate is 0.03% (or 7 times the U.S. average!) And we know from basic math, if one large city is well above average, then there are probably many small cities that are significantly safer, with homicide rates that are well below the national average. Further, when we account for racial differences (Chicago does have a high 33% Black population but a wildly disproportionate -even relative to other cities- >¾ of 2016's 746 murder victims were Black), we see that the lifetime murder odds of a Chicago White versus Black is the difference between 0.4% and 7%, respectively! A stunning gap based on skin color alone, as shown in the chart below. In this article we look at this critical measure of the lifetime odds of being murdered, a fear amplified by media reporting in some of the largest American cities, and speak to some of the policy challenges we have regarding this dynamic, such as migratory population changes, poverty/homeless levels, and impact on life expectancy.
We show the tabular results for all of the top 5 cities below. We see that New York City Whites may be less concerned about murder (1 in >1000 will be in their lifetime), though Blacks (particularly young males) in Houston would certainly be alarmed (1 in >20 in their lifetime). And so these differences help explain how one demographic segment (race, age, etc) may not fully understand the experience of the other.
What we equally appreciate is that such a wide difference in Black murder rate ultimately impacts their relative life expectancy (which is also affected of course for other inherent reasons). Consider that the murder rates are lower for the largest of these mega cities (New York and Los Angeles), and in those two cities one enjoys a nice life expectancy of about 79 years for Whites, but only about 75 years for Blacks. This is a real knock-off of 4 years of life.
Yet if we look at the next city down on the list (Chicago) we see nearly the same life expectancy for Whites, but now only a 72-years expected life for Blacks (a whopping 7 years lower life expectancy!) The only culprit to justify this wider difference is that too many Blacks are being killed pre-maturely, within their natural life. And it's not the police doing these killings, but where the Black Lives Matter movement and other civil right leaders should target their concerns (the tumor of violent Black-on-Black crimes within their own communities).
Consider that the 7 less years for Blacks in Chicago is a 8% reduction in life expectancy, and a huge collapse of fragile human capital potential. And tremendous stress in the inter-connected family structures for households that still need to move forward. 8% is also equivalent to the lifetime murder probability itself of 1:13, which means for every couple dozen, next stars such as Michael Jordan, Barack Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Langston Hughes, Halle Barry or Joe Lewis, there is one who we won't live long enough for us to enjoy their talents.
Incidentally (without regard to race) the gun murder rate is 6 times higher in Chicago versus other major cities, and in addition to that the non-gun (e.g., knife, asphyxiation, etc.) murders occurs in 1 of 10 Chicago slayings. In other words, removing guns from the streets would stop the vast majority of the Chicago murders, but still leave it nearly as high still as other cities that include gun murders.
Now we also see in the table above that high murder rates correlates to a low quality of life for everyone in the city. Some pockets having high crime that ultimately spills into the more affluent sections of town and impacting those residents as well. As a result, we see emigration out of places such as Chicago, particularly by people who can move. That in turn further exacerbates these crime statistics by leaving behind a higher concentration of poorer criminals who aren't the ones moving out. Higher poverty rates and many people leaving (lower population growth) are both correlated to higher violent crime rates (and dispiritingly also higher lottery spending), which is a pattern we see not just in the largest cities, but rather all over America.
Citizens continue to care not only that progress be made in their communities, but more critical is the absolute level of crime and how it fares relative to other places their could afford to live. Most may have never seen these mortality odds laid out as we have them here, but they are intuitively aware of the fear that they feel in their own districts. And this fear varies widely among residents, and highly reliant upon on the racial and economic make-up of one's particular neighborhood.
| top city | White odds (1 in x) |
Black odds (1 in x) |
5y population growth | poverty level |
| New York | 1,525 | 81 | 5% | 20% |
| Los Angeles | 405 | 27 | 5% | 21% |
| Chicago | 277 | 13 | 1% | 21% |
| Houston | 186 | 23 | 9% | 21% |
| Philadelphia | 136 | 32 | 3% | 26% |
What we equally appreciate is that such a wide difference in Black murder rate ultimately impacts their relative life expectancy (which is also affected of course for other inherent reasons). Consider that the murder rates are lower for the largest of these mega cities (New York and Los Angeles), and in those two cities one enjoys a nice life expectancy of about 79 years for Whites, but only about 75 years for Blacks. This is a real knock-off of 4 years of life.
Yet if we look at the next city down on the list (Chicago) we see nearly the same life expectancy for Whites, but now only a 72-years expected life for Blacks (a whopping 7 years lower life expectancy!) The only culprit to justify this wider difference is that too many Blacks are being killed pre-maturely, within their natural life. And it's not the police doing these killings, but where the Black Lives Matter movement and other civil right leaders should target their concerns (the tumor of violent Black-on-Black crimes within their own communities).
Consider that the 7 less years for Blacks in Chicago is a 8% reduction in life expectancy, and a huge collapse of fragile human capital potential. And tremendous stress in the inter-connected family structures for households that still need to move forward. 8% is also equivalent to the lifetime murder probability itself of 1:13, which means for every couple dozen, next stars such as Michael Jordan, Barack Obama, Oprah Winfrey, Langston Hughes, Halle Barry or Joe Lewis, there is one who we won't live long enough for us to enjoy their talents.
Incidentally (without regard to race) the gun murder rate is 6 times higher in Chicago versus other major cities, and in addition to that the non-gun (e.g., knife, asphyxiation, etc.) murders occurs in 1 of 10 Chicago slayings. In other words, removing guns from the streets would stop the vast majority of the Chicago murders, but still leave it nearly as high still as other cities that include gun murders.
Now we also see in the table above that high murder rates correlates to a low quality of life for everyone in the city. Some pockets having high crime that ultimately spills into the more affluent sections of town and impacting those residents as well. As a result, we see emigration out of places such as Chicago, particularly by people who can move. That in turn further exacerbates these crime statistics by leaving behind a higher concentration of poorer criminals who aren't the ones moving out. Higher poverty rates and many people leaving (lower population growth) are both correlated to higher violent crime rates (and dispiritingly also higher lottery spending), which is a pattern we see not just in the largest cities, but rather all over America.
Citizens continue to care not only that progress be made in their communities, but more critical is the absolute level of crime and how it fares relative to other places their could afford to live. Most may have never seen these mortality odds laid out as we have them here, but they are intuitively aware of the fear that they feel in their own districts. And this fear varies widely among residents, and highly reliant upon on the racial and economic make-up of one's particular neighborhood.
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