Update: two more articles on Trump's odds and his wealth, plus one on Nate Silver enjoyed by popular academic (including Andrew Gelman who called our criticism "cogent"). And a reminder that Statistical Ideas can now be followed on twitter (@salilstatistics).
It's going to be a wild ride this autumn for GOP presidential hopefuls. Even if all of the weakest candidates immediately leave the primaries, and spread their support to the remaining candidates - other than 20th century real estate bigwig and noted scholar Donald Trump. And that would be a not-insignificant, ~10 candidates who would have to do drop out (~2/3), to still make no difference! See the illustration below, for how the current polling has been nicely split among a legion of active candidates. There are also numerous other actors, who have been ankle-biting in this race, from the fringes: Michael Pence, Mitt Romney, Skip Andrews, Jefferson Sherman, Brian Russell, Kerry Bowers, etc.
The survey values exhibited were averaged from seven leading polling sources, some of which were last drawn after last week's, record drawing debate. Here is the list: ABC/Washington Post, Bloomberg, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC/Wall Street Journal, and Rasmussen.
Right now we can see Donald Trump has a towering lead (#1). His intense break-out has been awe-inspiring. And this lead endures, even if everyone from George Pataki (#17) through Rand Paul (#8) finally retreat, and their constituencies were proportionally spread among the remaining candidates ex-Donald Trump. So what are they waiting for? Perhaps they are thinking too hard with the Bible (Ecclesiastes 9:11): The race is not given to the swift nor the strong but he who endures until the end. Everybody knows they would face a better shot as dippy contestants on Donald Trumps' show (no not the Miss America competition, the other one: The Apprentice), instead of feigning a run for the highest office in the land. Only by the time Ted Cruz (#7) quits, would "otherwise favorite" Jeb Bush (#2) then overcome Donald Trump to lead the GOP polls. Of course a much less plausible scenario, to arrive at the same outcome, would be simply that a half dozen of the weakest candidates resign and unify their support for Jeb Bush. And the math gets even worse if Trump's current poll levels shown above, grow further.
It's also important to note that based on the current polling distribution, a candidate could barely get over 50% of the votes, based on any aggregation of 3 candidates' polling shares together (e.g., 2 candidates drop out and lend all of their support to the 3rd candidate). Similarly, by the time we get to Ted Cruz leaving the primaries, Donald Trump himself still could barely get over 50% of the polling votes. And that's based on Jeb Bush himself withdrawing, and adding all of his support to Donald Trump. Both scenarios above are fanciful.
So the current path of the Republican primaries, which is about to unfold this autumn, is one filled with empty drama and media intrigue. Donald Trump slaughtering many into fine meat and leading in plurality, unless and until there is an acute consolidation among candidates. Bon appétit. Foretelling anything beyond has proven perilous for neophyte statisticians (here, here).
It's going to be a wild ride this autumn for GOP presidential hopefuls. Even if all of the weakest candidates immediately leave the primaries, and spread their support to the remaining candidates - other than 20th century real estate bigwig and noted scholar Donald Trump. And that would be a not-insignificant, ~10 candidates who would have to do drop out (~2/3), to still make no difference! See the illustration below, for how the current polling has been nicely split among a legion of active candidates. There are also numerous other actors, who have been ankle-biting in this race, from the fringes: Michael Pence, Mitt Romney, Skip Andrews, Jefferson Sherman, Brian Russell, Kerry Bowers, etc.
Right now we can see Donald Trump has a towering lead (#1). His intense break-out has been awe-inspiring. And this lead endures, even if everyone from George Pataki (#17) through Rand Paul (#8) finally retreat, and their constituencies were proportionally spread among the remaining candidates ex-Donald Trump. So what are they waiting for? Perhaps they are thinking too hard with the Bible (Ecclesiastes 9:11): The race is not given to the swift nor the strong but he who endures until the end. Everybody knows they would face a better shot as dippy contestants on Donald Trumps' show (no not the Miss America competition, the other one: The Apprentice), instead of feigning a run for the highest office in the land. Only by the time Ted Cruz (#7) quits, would "otherwise favorite" Jeb Bush (#2) then overcome Donald Trump to lead the GOP polls. Of course a much less plausible scenario, to arrive at the same outcome, would be simply that a half dozen of the weakest candidates resign and unify their support for Jeb Bush. And the math gets even worse if Trump's current poll levels shown above, grow further.
It's also important to note that based on the current polling distribution, a candidate could barely get over 50% of the votes, based on any aggregation of 3 candidates' polling shares together (e.g., 2 candidates drop out and lend all of their support to the 3rd candidate). Similarly, by the time we get to Ted Cruz leaving the primaries, Donald Trump himself still could barely get over 50% of the polling votes. And that's based on Jeb Bush himself withdrawing, and adding all of his support to Donald Trump. Both scenarios above are fanciful.
So the current path of the Republican primaries, which is about to unfold this autumn, is one filled with empty drama and media intrigue. Donald Trump slaughtering many into fine meat and leading in plurality, unless and until there is an acute consolidation among candidates. Bon appétit. Foretelling anything beyond has proven perilous for neophyte statisticians (here, here).
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