Earlier this year, all of the "experts" decided to declare the coronavirus emergency over. And now yet again we have a new panic. With frightening-sounding twin variants of XBB 1.X and the "heavily mutated" BA.2 Pirola. No data anymore, and just push to get injected fast with the latest untested monovalent [or bivalent] vaccine.
In one of my two books next year we discuss the coronavirus data [which we've tracked here since the early days!] and where we are in this ongoing pandemic. Why also I have been slow letting go of my mask this year. Despite most people around me celebrating and generally moving on.
Some of what we know is that the data collection is far weaker than earlier in the Biden administration. Officials have moved on, and their replacements have been quiet. Yet the mosaic of data we can currently see shows yet another rise in cases, but only similar to the last minor wave [nearly a year ago]. And I forecast a similar low-level number of deaths [eg many tens of thousands of Americans.] Professional ensemble methods -for once- also align.
All-in there is a low chance [say 30%] that I will get my 4th vaccine shot this autumn 2023. I believe there is only modest life protection available to me in doing so. I take care of myself in-between these bouts of manufactured mayhem. And I also don't want to junk up my system with too many shots, so have considerably spaced this out. For reference, my last booster shot was only in 2021.
And I did things right. No one in my family was infected, ever.
If in fact this new winter flu and coronavirus wave is rough -and it might be a little rougher than usual even given previous waves- then I also expect society to put more burden to concede more remote work again. Thereby externally still tamping down one's overall exposure risk.
And another reason I will have my Mira👶 simply mask again during her initial weeks of school. Buying myself too, a few weeks to assess available data and consider any next steps. Which along with my well-maintained diet, fitness, and hygiene, will be both unhurried and unworried.
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