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Sunday, April 30, 2023

mass shootings

I've studied over a half dozen mass shooting data sources, and the data itself is often both noisy and incomplete. Yet there is no doubt this monster's growing silently.  Here is a brief summary.


Leaving aside longitudinal trends, there are cross-sectional aspects I tend to notice. But the statistical confidence of the signal is close to 50/50.  There are obviously many random one-off explanations elsewise.


Mass-shootings, as I define it:

* typically have 5 or more killed

* the weapon was usually not a handgun

* generally occurs in the rural south

* mostly have a loose contextual connection [a crowded local establishment]

* more often than not occur in the afternoon


Usually a mix of most -but not all- of the above fit in every shooting.  And the core of the pattern, again, is slowly shifting.  Note my family and I personally survived a mass shooting recently on a vacation, at an upscale Delaware location.  This news was semi-viral.  



Or here:


You can also see our video summary of it here: surviving indiscriminate shootings


There are other variables you may want to know about regarding the shooter's profile, history, access to various firearms, etc. The data is mostly available, but the patterns from them are highly spurious.  Bad policies stem from the wrong data in the wrong hands.


Last, there are risk hazard aspects of this. for those who advocate stronger school security for example, something to note: my inbox is now overflowing with savvy followers sharing clips of mass shootings and pandemonium happening at their school sporting events, or near parking lots.


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