CALCULATOR USED OVER 5000 TIMES AS OF MARCH 11
We developed a meticulous mathematical model (here) to give you a sense of your individual unconditional chance of needing
hospitalization this year, and also (separately) your chance of dying. The internal calculator takes into account the existing experience of cases primarily from China's health agency and other hospitalization projections and other data from CDC (here, here, here, here) or related White House press commentary, along with incorporating risk information from WHO.
Our actuarial calculator comprises of 4 primary variables, which should be most independent with one another while jointly explaining the vast majority of one’s risk. You will be asked to simply select 4 values in the yellow boxes, and then the results will appear in two forms (i.e., your risk expressed as an odds, and also a pie chart showing your probability). Please make sure to share this resource with any friends and family members who would benefit from this knowledge!
The new baseline assumption of our death prediction model is that there is a 1 in 15 infection odds in the entire population, with a 1.5% mortality rate (and 1 in 15 needing hospitalization) of those infected. If you feel there would be a stronger pandemic or weaker epidemic, then you can modestly scale up or down your results respectively.
For the United States for example, a country with about 320 million, this would amount to 21 million infected, and over 300 thousand deaths. For China, a country with about 1.5 billion, this would amount to over 100 million infected, and 1.5 million deaths. For India, a country with about 900 million, this would amount to over 60 million infected, and about 900 thousand deaths. For Italy, a country with about 60 million, this would amount to 4 million infected, and over 50 thousand deaths. Entire corporate board rooms around the world, will be on edge.
Additionally, this model further assumes you are using it in Spring 2020 and that your country has average public policy preparedness for a developed country and average health characteristics similar to those in developed countries.
So to be sure the output values is not your probability of being infected, nor the morbidity probability given/conditional about contracting the virus. It is the full probability that you will experience either a hospitalization need, or death, both of which already assume the chance of infection. So if for example you have a hypothetical 1 in 15 chance of contracting the disease and (further) a hypothetical 1.5% chance of death given this, what you will see here is a 0.1% chance of death. You can NOT simply take the 0.1% chance of death shown and then incorrectly infer that “well I have a 0.1% chance of death IF I get the virus” (what isn’t shown in this example is that you instead had hypothetically a 1.5% chance of death IF you get the virus and not the 0.1% in general!)
Last if the interactive template fails on your computer (e.g., some Android users not logged into Google), then please download the Excel version on the bottom (here).
Now for actuarial background, recall survival = 1 - mortality.
∴ for those who survive the current #coronavirus pandemic, we look to mild mortality rate increase bearing down for rest of our lives ALL of us (anywhere in the world) will suffer a LOWER life expectancy age, REGARDLESS of how we shake out this year.
Finally, while here please help sustain these resources by purchasing my book and sharing it with others.
this week i have traveled to and examined major stores around the New York area (@homedepot, @target, @walmart and @wholefoods) versus my #coronavirus preparation checklist, and have spoken with the store managers there as well to assess recent evisceration in warehouse inventory pic.twitter.com/q8WdDdahZx— Statistical Ideas (@salilstatistics) March 7, 2020
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