As we hurtle towards 2019, this post shares some random musings from the year just passed. Statistics is as much about explaining what isn't, as it is about explaining what is. And in that spirit, one of the biggest personal surprises for our 2018 was the level of political disharmony we felt creeping into most of our normal social contexts. Things appear worse now, versus in previous years, and we suspect based on trends that it will continue for some time. Still, there are ways to valiantly battle off the coming blackness.
Our blog started the year with an entertaining, theoretical math puzzle, but things went into different directions fairly quickly. The global stock market and cryptocurrency (e.g., Bitcoin) markets peaked around early January. They were both clearly bubbles, which have exploded. CNBC and other financial news were, as always, very slow to catch-on. Raising and keeping elevated market forecasts throughout the entire year, even as all markets closed down and near their lows.
And,
We also had much interest in the topic of statistical discrimination, in college admissions. It also opens up a broader discussion of how predictive early testing models are to ultimate career success.
In all, it seemed again like a dark year. A year with much fighting about what's the right way to treat others. At the same time, there are some simple tricks to get your personal life back on a more optimistic note. The two main things we have recently promoted on social media are:
A] Stop heeding attention to MSM news, ignorant friends, and lower screen-time (here, here, here, here)
B] Always consider that a couple statistical ideas may silently dominate your conclusions (e.g., other primary variables may actually be in control, records won't break while you are waiting for them to)
Finally, if you enjoyed my web-log, then you can consider ordering my complementary intermediate-level probability and statistics THEORY book this holiday season. #1 on Amazon in 2015 and 2016, and only about $7.
And with that, we wish you a very happy and prosperous new year.
Be at peace. Be healthy, wise, and improbable.
Our blog started the year with an entertaining, theoretical math puzzle, but things went into different directions fairly quickly. The global stock market and cryptocurrency (e.g., Bitcoin) markets peaked around early January. They were both clearly bubbles, which have exploded. CNBC and other financial news were, as always, very slow to catch-on. Raising and keeping elevated market forecasts throughout the entire year, even as all markets closed down and near their lows.
We noted clearly in the middle of the year that the markets and economy were headed for a severe slowdown by the end of 2019 (link, link). Many didn't believe this at the time (certainly not the experts). Companies for a brief moment had trillion dollar valuations, and Jeff Bezos shot to $150 billion (likely the high watermark on wealth, for decades). But now we see it happening before our eyes. This is one of the reasons I have ignored many of experts and news recently, as the distraction for their misinformation is so high.Markets down -2% YTD. But the NEWLY REVISED median Wall Street S&P FORECAST is 2975 (+11% from the end of 2017; +14% from today's level). The fantasy is already crumbling.— Statistical Ideas (@salilstatistics) February 10, 2018
cc @nntaleb pic.twitter.com/9VgcvhGSCL
And,
We continued in America to have dysfunctional debates concerning gun control, as we were subjected to further cases of mass violence. We also saw poorly built sports gambling models, which year after year fail to correctly show the probability of winning tournaments. We also saw poor consistency in official tracking of storm deaths. How many died in Puerto Rico: 64, or 46,000? The truth here is somewhere in between these very diverse estimates.Over the next 50 years, will the world’s wealthiest person have a present value worth greater than that seen earlier this year by @JeffBezos (≈$150 billion)? And will that person(s) be American?— Statistical Ideas (@salilstatistics) November 24, 2018
We also had much interest in the topic of statistical discrimination, in college admissions. It also opens up a broader discussion of how predictive early testing models are to ultimate career success.
In all, it seemed again like a dark year. A year with much fighting about what's the right way to treat others. At the same time, there are some simple tricks to get your personal life back on a more optimistic note. The two main things we have recently promoted on social media are:
A] Stop heeding attention to MSM news, ignorant friends, and lower screen-time (here, here, here, here)
B] Always consider that a couple statistical ideas may silently dominate your conclusions (e.g., other primary variables may actually be in control, records won't break while you are waiting for them to)
Finally, if you enjoyed my web-log, then you can consider ordering my complementary intermediate-level probability and statistics THEORY book this holiday season. #1 on Amazon in 2015 and 2016, and only about $7.
And with that, we wish you a very happy and prosperous new year.
Be at peace. Be healthy, wise, and improbable.
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