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Wednesday, March 28, 2018

Euphoria doesn't end with -10%

We've tested the S&P market pullback of -10%, twice now this year.  After not seeing this type of pullback at all in the past 2 years, we noted at the end of last year that multiple -10% corrections were in the offing.  It can not be avoided, nor is it just in the once glamorized technology sector.  One can also search for a few related articles on this site, starting with this one.

Further, the economy (below the surface) is petering down, despite what you may be hearing in (or wanting to hear from) central bankers, and the financial news.  And remember, turning points isn't their specialty (here, here). 

Stimulus attempts in the U.S. and elsewhere only has limited impact at this point, which is disappointing given the costs that only weigh on current anxiety.  The growth unfortunately is prone to any management or political missteps and the trend nowhere, but straight down.  Which brings us to the vision of what risks still lay ahead.  We show an Instagram version further below as well.


Take caution as appropriate as these risks tend to come quite quickly and despite the warnings here, will still catch many off-guard.  The easy-peasy exuberant era you were able to scrunch on (with stocks and Bitcoin) is effectively over; it's only a matter of time before all eventually come to understand the same. 

Also to note, I will be appearing on a major global television show (audience of over 40 million) this Sunday to discuss other probability and statistical theories.  Will advertise the detailed channel and time information on various social media, as soon as possible.


Note: Instagram version of image above.

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