MOST UP-TO-DATE ARTICLE: HERE
Despite most in the financial community coercing charts to fit a biased storyline, we statistically don’t have enough unique and comparable data about the most extreme market moves. Let alone what happens when we enter a period of fluctuated parameters, as we do right now, in the stock market “melt up”. There are very few scenarios -though obviously not impossible- however that would advise a multi-day drawdown is neither forthcoming nor would be limited to just 5%. Markets do what's least expected. And right now what's least expected is not a protracted melt-up of 1% daily, but rather awakening one morning to see a 5% crash for a single day!
Just as we admonished last year that a pullback in Bitcoin (and that there would be one to begin with) would not be limited to just 10%, or 25%, but way beyond 50%, etc.
Also for some of our recent comments on each asset class, please see either below. First on the stock market:
Or on our quickly-expanding facebook platform,
And then for Bitcoin you can visit our most popular YouTube video:
Despite most in the financial community coercing charts to fit a biased storyline, we statistically don’t have enough unique and comparable data about the most extreme market moves. Let alone what happens when we enter a period of fluctuated parameters, as we do right now, in the stock market “melt up”. There are very few scenarios -though obviously not impossible- however that would advise a multi-day drawdown is neither forthcoming nor would be limited to just 5%. Markets do what's least expected. And right now what's least expected is not a protracted melt-up of 1% daily, but rather awakening one morning to see a 5% crash for a single day!
Just as we admonished last year that a pullback in Bitcoin (and that there would be one to begin with) would not be limited to just 10%, or 25%, but way beyond 50%, etc.
Also for some of our recent comments on each asset class, please see either below. First on the stock market:
We've had among the very best few weeks ever (excluding post-crashes). At this otherworldly rate, the S&P 1y P/E & CAPE will BOTH blast through new ALL-TIME RECORD highs by year-end!— Statistical Ideas (@salilstatistics) January 20, 2018
A double-digit correction would be expected.https://t.co/44ssBhwoaP
cc @ritholtz @Scaramucci pic.twitter.com/lChyu3IiNY
Or on our quickly-expanding facebook platform,
And then for Bitcoin you can visit our most popular YouTube video:
Or,
last week we admonished after drop from $19k:— Statistical Ideas (@salilstatistics) January 17, 2018
"the price is now down at $13k... en route to <$7k"
AND back in November when price was last near $10k:
"majority of people worldwide (i.e., YOU) will get involved too late ... will be crying and depressed."https://t.co/LgiSQiUqr8 pic.twitter.com/mBn8EM3kPu
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