As a reminder, following Statistical Ideas is easy to do, through e-mail, @salilstatistics, facebook, LinkedIn. Enjoyed by 1/2 million, and hundreds of likes on facebook and twitter, 4th top economics post on redditt, and cited in Bloomberg, and through Mexico state media. Red Cross protested our reference to their Haiti home reconstruction, and it's addressed in-line below.
The Puerto Rico we once knew was dwindling into an unstable situation well before Hurricane Maria. The Americans trapped on this island territory have zero hope to see a recovery to any form of prior glory. The storm dealt a fatal blow on what was previously an uncertain end-game of long standing debt restructuring. The population had been quickly disappearing , cumulatively ~10% less than since the start of the global financial crisis of 2008. The best and most noble talent have gone. The island has been in an economic depression since, and all this while the world around them has been impressively growing and innovating for many years. The local government had never been able to operate efficiently, without the United States subsidies that had allowed it to thrive for decades, decades where most Americans generally never thought about the well-being of ordinary Puerto Ricans (the majority have wanted to be our 51st state). Now their weakened infrastructure and economy in ruin, and we are left with no state to recover to. Multiple residents might consider coming to the U.S. mainland, similar to the women and children frantically fleeing the Titanic. Of course starting anew on the mainland is daunting for many but will undoubtedly be no worse. And for the fellow Americans we can rescue from there, their future opportunities and potential would be greatly enhanced.
The Puerto Rico we once knew was dwindling into an unstable situation well before Hurricane Maria. The Americans trapped on this island territory have zero hope to see a recovery to any form of prior glory. The storm dealt a fatal blow on what was previously an uncertain end-game of long standing debt restructuring. The population had been quickly disappearing , cumulatively ~10% less than since the start of the global financial crisis of 2008. The best and most noble talent have gone. The island has been in an economic depression since, and all this while the world around them has been impressively growing and innovating for many years. The local government had never been able to operate efficiently, without the United States subsidies that had allowed it to thrive for decades, decades where most Americans generally never thought about the well-being of ordinary Puerto Ricans (the majority have wanted to be our 51st state). Now their weakened infrastructure and economy in ruin, and we are left with no state to recover to. Multiple residents might consider coming to the U.S. mainland, similar to the women and children frantically fleeing the Titanic. Of course starting anew on the mainland is daunting for many but will undoubtedly be no worse. And for the fellow Americans we can rescue from there, their future opportunities and potential would be greatly enhanced.
In 2015, Puerto Rico had announced that they needed to restructure the already negatively downgraded government debt. Immediately after the expiry of this President Obama era stay of execution, they filed for bankruptcy. Puerto Rico had never done well for their
mainstream residents either. They have
been riddled with social injustice and corruption, including through their public
sector. High school graduation rates are
less than 60%; worse than in any of the 50 states. Unemployment of 12% is more than 2x the U.S.
average. Recent Federal Reserve surveys
show even households fortunate enough to be employed have a median income of only
$20k. Far less than ½ the U.S. average
of $51k. And the gini coefficient (inequality
index) at 53% is higher than any of the 50 states, and as a stand-alone would
rival some of the excessive and worst countries on Earth.
Someone at the top class of Puerto Rico should not be enriched with bailout
funds, only to solve nothing and just continue this perpetual torture right through to the next superstorm (which will clearly come soon enough and again wreak havoc on this island). Private investments will likely slowly flow form the capital markets, but tagged with an exuberant cost.
This article initially referenced the Red Cross building homes for Haiti, for which the Red Cross complained. It is true that their relief work is both complicated and customized for any country. They have also had some nice successes. Though also to be fair, many organizations have been highly critical of various aspects of Red Cross' ability to successfully handle core aspects of previous high-profile disasters. If of interest to any organization, we'll statistically explore in a new article the unique topics related to humanitarian groups and their effectiveness. Ultimately the only point here, as it concerns the current long-term policy for addressing Puerto Rico, is to consider if federal government assistance can be any better.
This article initially referenced the Red Cross building homes for Haiti, for which the Red Cross complained. It is true that their relief work is both complicated and customized for any country. They have also had some nice successes. Though also to be fair, many organizations have been highly critical of various aspects of Red Cross' ability to successfully handle core aspects of previous high-profile disasters. If of interest to any organization, we'll statistically explore in a new article the unique topics related to humanitarian groups and their effectiveness. Ultimately the only point here, as it concerns the current long-term policy for addressing Puerto Rico, is to consider if federal government assistance can be any better.
Utter mismanagement and
the wide exodus of their brightest talent (Also note those associated with the territory rarely work there: Rosie Perez, Pitbull, Ricky Martin. Further Mark Cuban is not from there but has sports players from there.) have left
Puerto Rico as a no man's land. With exceptionally limited restructuring options, and a weakly diverse talent base. While we myopically
fantasize about a Cinderella story, it is doubtful the neediest among them will ever do more than be voiceless and simply get by. It's our higher calling after a crisis to not blame victims for being immobile; it could be any of us. We can express much-needed water and supplies, but there is no revival and little economic connection to the rest of the world. Let alone the rest of the U.S. Most will of course never be able to
afford transportation to the mainland.
This is a desperate situation where
the neediest with no family relations elsewhere should obviously be helped and taken care of. The fraction of the elites who
have more than enriched themselves, while doing no more than overseeing this long-term ruin, should pay some dear price for their own recovery from this failure.
"By the way, exactly how many homes did the Red Cross build after the Haiti disaster? Less than a dozen."
ReplyDeleteWith respect, your comment is either lazy, or uniformed, recycling of a long debunked myth about the Red Cross in Haiti. My name is Ken Mundt and I am on the staff of the Red Cross, in Seattle
We have helped build or fund the operation of eight hospitals and clinics, including a prosthetics clinic for some of the thousands who lost limbs in the quake; a teaching hospital where in one case, conjoined twins separated by a team of Haitian doctors. We helped stem a deadly cholera outbreak and funded the first ever cholera vaccination campaign in Haiti.
Donations to the Red Cross paid for chartered planes to bring in thousands of cholera relief supplies such as cots, chlorine, oral rehydration salts. We brought clean water and access to sanitation to schools and communities. Donations to the Red Cross helped build Port-au-Prince’s first waste water treatment plant in 2011.
When partners were unable to provide land upon which to build new homes due to disputes with titles, the Red Cross made the decision to prioritize helping the most people get a roof over their heads after the earthquake – even if it was temporary – rather than waiting to build more costly new houses for a much smaller number of people. We have helped more than 100,000 people to obtain safe and improved housing – and we continue to rebuild homes and neighborhoods. Working with partners like Habitat for Humanity and Handicap International, we built thousands of transitional shelters that can last 5 years. Rental subsidies helped thousands of Haitians leave camps and move into rented homes. We also helped people repair their homes and even aided them in adding rooms if they agreed to allow someone from a camp to live in it rent-free for one year. We are continuing to repair schools, roadways, and water distribution points in neighborhoods. This proved to be a quicker and more effective way to provide homes for more people because many people want to stay in the neighborhoods they were in before the earthquake close to family, schools, and jobs.
Problems confronted governments and humanitarian organizations in obtaining title to the land upon which new homes can be built. A new U.S. government report published in June 2015 found that new housing settlements in Haiti have been more costly and slower to build than anticipated. The cost for building a new home tripled since the earthquake.
https://twitter.com/salilstatistics/status/913580588329766913
Delete...looks to me like a major systemic tear-down and rebuild is what's needed in Puerto Rico, including the tearing down of Puerto Rico's current prevalent dysfunctional governmental mindset and "rebuilding" it into one that does not possess the apparent corruption-driven dysfunction that has, in part (a major part), placed Puerto Rico into its current predicament.
ReplyDeletethanks for comment
DeleteSadly, it may be uninhabitable for a long time. Get them out.
ReplyDeletethanks for comment
Delete