Latest article on this topic is here: http://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2017/05/caution-with-market-risk-strategies.html
Eventually every strong market run overextends itself beyond the fundamentals, and then comes to a violent end. There is no doubt that we are constructing such a formation right now. These ideas have been cited widely as the most popular article in Wall Street Journal network's MarketWatch (here, here), and the rarity of risk lately is discusssed here. We don't know when exactly it will end (likely later this year) or what will be blamed for it (Trump), but it will occur. By definition when it ends it will be a statistical break from the straight run-up we've seen of late. A crash, just to clearly put it on record here: perhaps taking us back to as far as the 2016 election level (S&P ~2140, or a ~-10% drop from today's level). The market doesn't care what you think you're made of, who you voted for, and it certainly never loved you back.
For those who have not managed money in previous market crashes, such as 2000 or 2008 era, it is worth reminding that things get extraordinarily ugly, when you least expect it. This is your decennial moment. Getting out soon and locking in some of the Trump Bump profits would be über wise, else once the S&P is below 2300 (and at some point it will get there in a couple-week-short market tornado) you will definitely regret you hadn't. Also, see one of our more popular messages below:
Eventually every strong market run overextends itself beyond the fundamentals, and then comes to a violent end. There is no doubt that we are constructing such a formation right now. These ideas have been cited widely as the most popular article in Wall Street Journal network's MarketWatch (here, here), and the rarity of risk lately is discusssed here. We don't know when exactly it will end (likely later this year) or what will be blamed for it (Trump), but it will occur. By definition when it ends it will be a statistical break from the straight run-up we've seen of late. A crash, just to clearly put it on record here: perhaps taking us back to as far as the 2016 election level (S&P ~2140, or a ~-10% drop from today's level). The market doesn't care what you think you're made of, who you voted for, and it certainly never loved you back.
For those who have not managed money in previous market crashes, such as 2000 or 2008 era, it is worth reminding that things get extraordinarily ugly, when you least expect it. This is your decennial moment. Getting out soon and locking in some of the Trump Bump profits would be über wise, else once the S&P is below 2300 (and at some point it will get there in a couple-week-short market tornado) you will definitely regret you hadn't. Also, see one of our more popular messages below:
— Statistical Ideas (@salilstatistics) March 31, 2017
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