>1/3 economists foresee sub-2% GDP

The math is straightforward; see below.  The 1^st quarter GDP came in at 0.7%, and the 2^nd quarter is now tracking at just 2.7%.  All of this is per the Department of Commerce and Federal Reserve.  Now while each quarter weighs somewhat differently into the full year calculation, we can extrapolate the full year GDP forecast by investigating six dozen private sector, academic, and Wall Street forecasts.  The outcome is that while there is a “rebound” expected in 2^nd quarter, this is hardly a satisfactory rebound (e.g., say 4% or greater) and it is unlikely to do anything other than severely fall back through the balance of the year and the start of next.  Nassim Taleb liked our tweet suggesting blindly guessing 2% GDP each quarter would outperform more sophisticated but noisy "forecasts".

2017 GDP

~ (Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4)/4
~ (0.7 + 2.7 + Q3&Q4 forecasts)/4
~2.1% but with a 0.3% standard deviation

The resulting distribution below shows the full-year forecast, and it reveals an uncomfortably high > one third of economists have already assumed that (despite a rebound in GDP and despite President Trump’s tax agenda) the 2017 GDP will be among the frailest since the economic recovery began in 2009.  We label some sample institutions among the data below.  Can astonishing market highs and record low volatility withstand this puny growth?