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Wednesday, March 22, 2017

West samples Middle Eastern terror

March 23 update: Common denominator types of questions on my recent #terrorism blog article. Just to lay out some probability ideas to dig further into this matter. More than ½ of terrorists (not all) who executed mayhem were young men. And the clear majority of young men are NOT terrorists! So, we should tread with care and thoughtfulness about how we think and respond to such situations. Those in communities closely connected to terrorism should appreciate this and shoulder greater awareness and effort to help combat this universal scrooge affecting local mortality.
An example is the popular social responsibility advertising: “friends don’t let friends drive drunk.” We don’t suggest discriminating against all young men from driving (even though most drunk drivers look like this, wholesale discrimination wouldn't eliminate all
#DrunkDriving!). And we jointly suggest that the clear majority of young men never drink and drive. We don't want to falsely accuse them, yet they still should also help in the effort to stop drunk driving since they may be closely connected to other young men who are in positions to do such. Friends don't let friends drive drunk, nor do they let friends acquire a gun while they also preach hate towards ANYONE ELSE.

Finally, thousands of innocent Middle Easterners (+those in central Africa & southwest Asia) are butchered by terrorism, MONTHLY. Probability of a terror death is a MAGNITUDE HIGHER there versus for people in the West. We should sympathize just as much with those people forced to live it out in turbulent hot zones, as we do with the ones senselessly victimized on the streets of London. We all share one world: let's prosper together.

There have been 57 terrorist attacks around the world, just so far this month, resulting in a daunting 420 deaths (3/4 are from executions, shootings, suicide strikes, and car bombings).  Yet most will only remember the handful killed today in an isolated London barrage, by yet unknown terrorist group [of course likely ISIL], using a sui generis coupling of vehicle-ram and stabbing.  This is emblematic of how we often disproportionately focus on terror, where it is growing but also where occurs the least.  We have covered this story a while back (here, here, here), but here we focus on terrorist attacks in the most recent 6 months and show insights on precisely where they have occurred, and by who.

Most countries of nearly 240 experienced no terrorism at all (and hence removed from the map below).  69 countries on the other hand have incurred a total of 810 terrorist attacks in the past 6 months, mostly by young men.  These are attacks that have been covered by the news media, and it's possible a very small number of these are bogus claims, so the actual figure (similar to hate crimes) may on net still be very close or slightly higher than what we show.  And in any event we focus also on death causalities, which is a cleaner and more relevant data set.  We see in the horrifying bloody colors below, nearly 8000 deaths have resulted across these 69 nations.  The typical country among the 69 incurred 10 deaths in the past 6 months, but each country is different within the 8000 total (e.g., United States at just 2, the United Kingdom at 6, China at 7, Russia at 9, Germany at 13, Saudi Arabia at 27, Turkey at 161, Pakistan at 349, Iraq at >3000).


The claimed or suspected perpetrators of this 8000 murder mayhem are spread among roughly 150 thug networks, both large and small and mostly headquartered in (and adjacent to!) the Middle East.  ISIL (who recent U.S. Presidents proclaim is weakened) is responsible for a startling >50% of these murders (and fully inverting the leading cause of death or injury in those areas), which occurs where they are based though for a short while had spread across many western countries.  After this the Taliban, Boko Haram, and Al-Shabaab together account for nearly a quarter of these 8000 murders.  The latter two terrorist gangs generally execute their attacks in central Africa.

2 comments:

  1. But Salil, where you getting your data and why don't you provide a source here?

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    1. Hi Corri, Thanks. As mentioned here and in previous articles, my source is a reconciled mix of manual injestion of news reports combined with the University of Maryland terror database. Manually audited a sample of these as well with addition research. There is no doubt that the basic story is intact and comports with the trend of what other research groups have published in recent years.

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