Update 1: In addition to being liked by advisors on both sides, this blog is now being followed by a current Obama Czar and board member for his library foundation.
Update 2: With the Chicago Facebook attack a couple days ago in January 2017, a number of political and media voices have tried to obfuscate the data and situation to fit their own scheme. It is undoubtedly neither easy nor safe being a Black civilian in America. Even today as many people see their social mobility climb, many Blacks are poor and ill, and fearful of their neighbors. Yet there are more than Blacks living on earth and they don’t have exclusivity on facing human trials; we must therefore rely on the actual mortality statistics to guide all of us from a justly macro perspective. And those probabilities couldn't be more clear, and should be just as acknowledged instead of running away with imaginary conversations about the much greater problem. Both White and Blacks are many times more likely to be killed by someone in their own race then the other way around. And if dealing with these cross-race homicides, we should note that BOTH Whites and police are MANY TIMES more likely to die from a Black(s), then the other way around.
In our prior article we exposed that a murdered Black had a 90% chance of being killed by another Black (8x the rate of Whites being killed by another White). And a murdered Black had a 10% chance of being killed by police (usually Black police, and anyway it is at a high 2.5x the rate of Whites). We integrated recent popular academic research (some of which I assisted to peer-reviewed), and lastly we noted that for every 10 Blacks killed by police, 1 police was killed by a Black. We intend to explore these trends further, since after that article we saw more shooting deaths of police in Baton Rouge. This debate about the killings’ statistics between predominantly Blacks and police have brought up in the current political conventions and in classrooms to discuss the probability theory. It’s also worth noting from the onset that this all appears to be a system that has gotten out of control. Police are ubiquitous in low income neighborhoods, and in these neighborhoods Blacks are killing disproportionately. This summer in particular is going to set records going back more than a decade (even if you remove mass terrorist shootings from the time series). There is a lack of social service safety nets for these multitude of decent Americans, and instead the government's Lottery is ironically a sponge drawing away from these communities that need assistance most. I helped some of their neighborhoods rebuild, with economic assistance provided during the TARP bailout program. But now attaining lethal weapons is too easy. Blacks are aware, and equally the killings of these courageous public servants needs to stop. Innocent Americans are needlessly becoming victims with the idea that police lives don’t matter. They don’t matter in the sense that Black Lives Matter (BLM) -per the words from their chief leaders- is now pushing to defund the police altogether. And White people certainly shouldn’t feel somehow guilty because a small fraction of them are crowded into the Top 1%. Most White communities -along with most Americans- are going through a trying time as well, but just not as violently. This follow-up seemed necessary to present a broader mathematical case (taking in comments from both sides), then merely the grim murder probabilities that provide bad optics for one population segment. It is my hope that we learn from these most violent statistics and model building, since this is also where data (difficult to come by) is just a tad easier to manually assimilate.
Update 2: With the Chicago Facebook attack a couple days ago in January 2017, a number of political and media voices have tried to obfuscate the data and situation to fit their own scheme. It is undoubtedly neither easy nor safe being a Black civilian in America. Even today as many people see their social mobility climb, many Blacks are poor and ill, and fearful of their neighbors. Yet there are more than Blacks living on earth and they don’t have exclusivity on facing human trials; we must therefore rely on the actual mortality statistics to guide all of us from a justly macro perspective. And those probabilities couldn't be more clear, and should be just as acknowledged instead of running away with imaginary conversations about the much greater problem. Both White and Blacks are many times more likely to be killed by someone in their own race then the other way around. And if dealing with these cross-race homicides, we should note that BOTH Whites and police are MANY TIMES more likely to die from a Black(s), then the other way around.
In our prior article we exposed that a murdered Black had a 90% chance of being killed by another Black (8x the rate of Whites being killed by another White). And a murdered Black had a 10% chance of being killed by police (usually Black police, and anyway it is at a high 2.5x the rate of Whites). We integrated recent popular academic research (some of which I assisted to peer-reviewed), and lastly we noted that for every 10 Blacks killed by police, 1 police was killed by a Black. We intend to explore these trends further, since after that article we saw more shooting deaths of police in Baton Rouge. This debate about the killings’ statistics between predominantly Blacks and police have brought up in the current political conventions and in classrooms to discuss the probability theory. It’s also worth noting from the onset that this all appears to be a system that has gotten out of control. Police are ubiquitous in low income neighborhoods, and in these neighborhoods Blacks are killing disproportionately. This summer in particular is going to set records going back more than a decade (even if you remove mass terrorist shootings from the time series). There is a lack of social service safety nets for these multitude of decent Americans, and instead the government's Lottery is ironically a sponge drawing away from these communities that need assistance most. I helped some of their neighborhoods rebuild, with economic assistance provided during the TARP bailout program. But now attaining lethal weapons is too easy. Blacks are aware, and equally the killings of these courageous public servants needs to stop. Innocent Americans are needlessly becoming victims with the idea that police lives don’t matter. They don’t matter in the sense that Black Lives Matter (BLM) -per the words from their chief leaders- is now pushing to defund the police altogether. And White people certainly shouldn’t feel somehow guilty because a small fraction of them are crowded into the Top 1%. Most White communities -along with most Americans- are going through a trying time as well, but just not as violently. This follow-up seemed necessary to present a broader mathematical case (taking in comments from both sides), then merely the grim murder probabilities that provide bad optics for one population segment. It is my hope that we learn from these most violent statistics and model building, since this is also where data (difficult to come by) is just a tad easier to manually assimilate.
There is plenty of information circulating that homicides of
civilians through some methods has gone down (our
blog has discussed this as well). Overall
police mortality has gone down (but through all means per the fallen officers database, including common causes such as simple working accidents
or vehicle crashes). In the chart below
we see that for the specific case of cold-blooded shooting of police to death, so
far in 2016 this has gone up by about
70%, versus the YTD levels in previous years. It goes up, even as the month of July is not
yet over. It goes up even if we
don’t count the Dallas and Baton Rouge killings at all. And it is nearly a 1 standard deviation event,
implying that recent killings are either purposefully too high in response to BLM,
or because we simply have a rise in disobedient killings anyway, and likely
both. Disturbingly, the police are the only sub-population being killed at an
increasing rate over time! And while in
recent years about 55% of these murders were done by Blacks (who represent 13%
of the U.S. population); and in 2016 this surged to a goliath ¾ of police murdered
by Blacks throughout 2016. This evidence of the uptick in police being killed by Blacks is statistically significant at >95%.
To put data from both of my articles, concerning Black and White murders into context, see this illustration below, mixing in data sourced from the Council of Economic Advisers, Centers for Disease Control, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Census Bureau, Bureau of Justice Statistics, and Government Accounting Office. Black murder arrests are at about 25% higher rate versus Whites, per unit of a civilian-on-civilian murder within a community of the same race. Yet on the right of the chart below we see that Blacks are generally killing police at a 20% higher rate versus Whites, per person of the same race identified who is now in prison for murder.
Such a spike in police being killed however is the most stunning, particularly as it discourages otherwise good, decent Americans from both Colors taking up this noble public service. We all rely on the police at some point in our lives. We ask them to work in our most dangerous cities, and they are mostly good officers (of course a few bad ones well). The anecdotal shootings of Blacks that are edited through social media and provide bad optics for communities that feel the police are intervening in their progress to live a healthy and productive life. Of course black lives matter. Most Americans should agree with that as well. There are many, many pure and productive Blacks among our colleagues, friends, and -in my case- students. But they also agree that over time so to matters the lives of all moral and law-abiding people, including children, vulnerable women, police and everyday people in the same tender socio-economic status.
Also see this illustration below on relative mortality rates and the risks holistically.
Expressed better, we focus instead on the realism that ALL innocent lives must matter. We live in a country where there is too much overall homicide (nearly 6 thousand annually). And at the racial intersection we also have Black officers more likely to shoot Whites, then White officers are to shoot Blacks. But behind all of these statistics we all must work together and have a clear sense of responsibility to each another. We share this country, and rise and fall together. With hope, we will spend more time brightly raising each other up as fellow countrymen, rather than finding it easy to speak hateful words of one another (which can then slide to killing one another).
Such a spike in police being killed however is the most stunning, particularly as it discourages otherwise good, decent Americans from both Colors taking up this noble public service. We all rely on the police at some point in our lives. We ask them to work in our most dangerous cities, and they are mostly good officers (of course a few bad ones well). The anecdotal shootings of Blacks that are edited through social media and provide bad optics for communities that feel the police are intervening in their progress to live a healthy and productive life. Of course black lives matter. Most Americans should agree with that as well. There are many, many pure and productive Blacks among our colleagues, friends, and -in my case- students. But they also agree that over time so to matters the lives of all moral and law-abiding people, including children, vulnerable women, police and everyday people in the same tender socio-economic status.
Also see this illustration below on relative mortality rates and the risks holistically.
Expressed better, we focus instead on the realism that ALL innocent lives must matter. We live in a country where there is too much overall homicide (nearly 6 thousand annually). And at the racial intersection we also have Black officers more likely to shoot Whites, then White officers are to shoot Blacks. But behind all of these statistics we all must work together and have a clear sense of responsibility to each another. We share this country, and rise and fall together. With hope, we will spend more time brightly raising each other up as fellow countrymen, rather than finding it easy to speak hateful words of one another (which can then slide to killing one another).
Of course, your stats are discriminatory! People who post information like this keep the flames burning in these times of excelerated tension. These stats have not been validated through no other source! Your fabricated stats are the epitomy of your own trumped up prejudices and opinions. You are probably looking for ratings, but demeaning a whole race of people is not the answer!
ReplyDeleteThanks anonymous. Unfortunately for you, it is unclear what you are complaining about. The statistics are obviously from similar reliable sources that any educated person would pick from: academic primary research, peer-reviewed publications such as American Statistical Association and Harvard's NBER, as well as the fallen officers' database, White House Council of Economic Advisors, Center for Disease Control, Federal Bureau of Investigation, Census, Bureau of Justice Statistics, and Government Accounting Office. Quotes from Black Lives Matter have been made repeatedly and easily found through individual research. We suggest that you make a more compelling attempt to disprove these data or analysis in the future. That'll serve you better than immature and hollow whining.
DeleteThanks much for the comments Poopsie. You are smashing together a number of ideas, from those that are a variety of subjective opinions, to those based on national statistics (or at least isolated statistics that you have connected together). I think the engagement on the comment section of this blog article is robust enough among different people that I personally don't need to opine on every friendly comment. I do of course disagree with your off-hand complaint about TARP; though I think we at least agree that we need an environment where large financial institutions (plus housing and autos and insurance and public/private investments, etc.) can no longer put economic stability at risk!
DeleteThanks anonymous. I'll note that we should be sensitive to comments or statistical findings that can perpetuate racial discrimination and ongoing tensions. Incidentally, have you seen the latest demands by the BLM movement (released yesterday)?
DeleteWouldn't it be better if blacks had jobs that gave their lives meaning rather than government dependency? Wouldn't it be better if black children were raised in families with mothers and fathers rather than making fathers irrelevant with government checks? Wouldn't blacks be better off if the parents had school choice so they could send their children to the best schools like the Obamas do? Wouldn't the country be better off if people were judged on merit and the content of their character rather than skin color?
ReplyDeleteStatistics show blacks as a group, American's freedom in general and the country as a whole economically were much better off before a handful of academics "smarter than the rest of us" set about controlling peoples' lives with social legislation. Tinkering with outcomes by taking away personal responsibility, blaming others for one's failures, taking wages from those who struggle to earn it to give to a resentful, professional grievance class has done at least as much to destroy the black soul and our social fabric as slavery which 300,000 white men died to end 150 years ago.
By the way, TARP - another income redistribution by sage academics was a failure, too. A waste of money by earnest do-gooders being used as a front to further the interests of those who only want power.
It's time to dismantle all these expensive, failed programs rather than paper them over - again - with more stolen money from people whose incomes haven't risen in 18 years so we can look forward to more failed promises.
Everybody has the right to Freedom of Speech, let each person express themselves, to how they feel. All comments matter, stop getting mad at others posts. Damn, we all matter, all lives matter, but when it comes to black men and woman, our skins is still black, and when it comes to police pulling us over, we are looked at as criminal. Going to state this, we are like slaves and the officer are our Master, when they pull us over, they like when you say yes sir no sir.....yes master, no master. Do what they say and still you end up dead, our black men are dying but still we must stop killing each other, I hurt and I cried when I seen that young man shot several times after obeying the police his girl and child in the car, I couldn't stop crying. We can march and March, nothing going to change until we stop killing each other. I pray, for my black men as much as I pray for all people. My son is the same ages of that young man, shot in his car
DeleteThanks unknown, and I empathize with your feelings. I am often disheartened when I see the video snippets after someone dies, though as others also point out (and I do in my prior article http://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2016/07/black-lives-matter-paradox.html), the video is just a small part of the story and only for one of the hundreds who die. All of the juries have acquitted the police in every case.
DeleteBe strong and know that there are many ways we all can live better lives, despite the inevitable chaos around us! Also let me know how we can be more sensitive to your needs on this blog. Delighted to help.
So what is it about skin pigment that makes a black person more likely to murder? What mechanism do you think causes this?
ReplyDeleteThanks Jim for the question. There are multiple interlocking forces at play, some more useful than others. Blacks indeed kill one another and police (and Black police kill civilians) all at a higher rate versus Whites. Obviously Black pigment doesn't MAKE one violent; just as White pigment doesn't MAKE one peaceful. However we should also be mindful that despite the statistics noted here and throughout both our articles on the blog, we should ask ourselves if police can still do a better job in appreciating minority lives in general. Basically conducting themselves with less prejudice when identifying and approaching suspects. There are mostly good citizens among both the Black and the Blue communities, and both lead difficult lives. When crime erupts and some ghettos spiral into creative chaos, we also want to support the process by which police execute their jobs.
DeleteThese are nice words but you have sidestepped my question.
DeleteRace isn't a genetic determiner of violent behavior because race simply doesn't exists - it is a social construct which is defined by the opinion of the observed and the observer and which has changed radically over time; the only fact it reflects is how society views people of different skin colors. "Race" is not a scientific concept that can be measured or qualified by statistical methods because it is wholly subjective. Isn't this obvious?
Why is saying "black people are 8x more likely to kill" any different or less accurate than saying "people with curly hair are 8x more likely to kill" that people with straight hair, because isn't that is also true? We don't make that particular statement because we don't want to discriminate against curly haired people, we want to discriminate against people who are different and since many "white" people have curly hair we have no need to see them as different.
The only "interlocking forces at play" here are poverty and a systemic racism that asserts that race is something that can be objectively quantified and used to glean anything useful about human behavior, and so applying statistics to the myth of race provides no more insight than applying it to unicorn populations.
Race "doesn't exist" and is a "myth" yet black people cannot receive bone marrow transplants from white people and vice-versa. We can't lie our way to a better future, Jim.
DeleteHi anonymous. I think both you and Jim are both slightly off-topic in how to consider racial statistics. Ask yourself if we had a blind robot, applying the Turing test, and enforcing criminal justice across the U.S. based on their own statistics and intelligence. What would the results be? Would the outcome be slightly more Blacks being arrested, jailed, killed, and responsible for beating up the police-robots?
DeleteImagine a United States without the small number of people who commit half the murders. Imagine no low income neighborhoods. No need to discriminate against most for the unearned benefit of some. America approaches its race problem in a totally wrong-headed way. Instead of bring these people to stay, pay them to leave. Leave and never come back. I would imagine that a quarter million dollars would go a long way in Africa, probably allow a person and family to live like royalty. And in the long run, giving people that serve as leaches against the resources and wealth of the United States a quarter of a million dollars now to leave would be far less expensive than the costs of letting them stay.
ReplyDeleteSo, end all safety net and affirmative action programs that disproportionally are now paid to any one group. Offer the heads of households of those groups a quarter million dollars to leave and never return. You can find out who the heads of household are from tax returns, which are filed by these people because the report qualifies them now to receive the benefits they enjoy. Include free one way airfare to where ever these people want to go.
Within a year, maybe even six months of the inception of this "Return Home Wealthy" policy, you will see a drop in murder rates, a decline in violence, police shootings cut in at least half. Schools in the inner cities will be safe to learn in, and the discriminatory policies that serve as a cancer on the ideal of equal treatment under law can be terminated. The level of discord in American politics will be made more civil at least to some degree without the constant whining of losers. And then the country can focus on its real problems instead of wasting so much time wringing its hands over so few people.
The "Return Home Wealthy" program will be completely voluntary...but the allure of having such a significant stake in wealth in the face of drastically reduced bribery programs will be a hard bargain to turn down.
And as an added bonus, we no longer will have to listen to democrat politicians pandering for the votes of Black people with the tax receipts taken from working people.
Thanks anonymous. We can't force Americans who are living here, to simply leave the country. That's traumatic for everyone! Even if they are committing violent crimes if they stay. A lengthy jail term is the most compassionate approach, and I am in favor of the victims having a direct say in the prison term length. Can you find some states or countries where this has worked out better than others?
DeleteThe question of why there is more crime amoung blacks was not answered. It has more to do with the fact that more whites are raised in a family where the Majority M and Dad are married. Only one in 10 black couples with child receive welfares. Children not on welfare have a better chance at being productive adults. Finishing HS and getting a trade, going to college and then a job before marrying and having children. If the government encouraged skills leading towards good paying jobs and encouraged marriage, there would be less black crime. All Americans need a healthy environment that is based upon independence, not dependabce on the government as a plantation master. It keeps people down low and kills young lives, before they have a chance. Black Lives do matter. Let's do something about it through education, skills, jobs and marriage before babies Black Lives Matter.
ReplyDeleteThe question of why there is more crime amoung blacks was not answered. It has more to do with the fact that more whites are raised in a family where the Majority M and Dad are married. Only one in 10 black couples with child receive welfares. Children not on welfare have a better chance at being productive adults. Finishing HS and getting a trade, going to college and then a job before marrying and having children. If the government encouraged skills leading towards good paying jobs and encouraged marriage, there would be less black crime. All Americans need a healthy environment that is based upon independence, not dependabce on the government as a plantation master. It keeps people down low and kills young lives, before they have a chance. Black Lives do matter. Let's do something about it through education, skills, jobs and marriage before babies Black Lives Matter.
ReplyDeleteThanks NB Davies. My task was not to analyze or speculate on the causes of crime or what broader cultural policies we should address. As background, leading media journalists and political advisers sought me to fact check quotes (http://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2016/07/black-lives-matter-paradox.html) and that led to a pure question that is answered here, which is the levels and probabilities of violence with Blacks and with Whites (towards each other, or police, etc.) For example, while there is debate over whether petty crimes should be pursued (e.g., drugs, pan handling, etc.), there is no debate in policy or risk probabilities that violence is so wrong that we can study it and solve it as a stand-alone problem!
Delete