How to have NOT lost $ today

Delighted to have not lost money today, when most stock portfolios fell 6% (on some metrics matching the black swan of 2008); knew much better than to not have a ton of cash going into the Brexit vote.  Enjoyed a pleasant breakfast with the head of a NYC public pension fund just as the markets opened, and never once sweated it on this sweltering day in Manhattan. 

Nearly everyone else was misled and wrong however, and by the same usual suspects.  Wall Street saying markets are cheap.  Political strategists saying the vote would be for "remain".  But we should note that in recent years we've many times discussed, to you our active blog audience, that tail-risk such as today has been more underappreciated than usual (and far more than an immature normal distribution would force you to conclude).  See one such illustration (showing theory versus reality - in recent years versus normal) that should have been taken more seriously before today's instability (not via the increasingly frequent, a-little-too-late and hollow statements).  In English, do expect additional volatility gyrations in both directions for a little while longer!

Don't bother with standard deviation analysis, nor trying to over-think the markets.  Instead read more about probability and risk (here, here, here, here, here).  Then contently make more money, over the long run; while stylishly keep your cool!

On an aside: earlier this week we have ongoing lottery inanity with 25m Americans continuing to not read our lottery research and wasting another 44m Mega Millions tickets ($55m). Also as predicted throughout my research, lottery still not expected to be won for another week or two, and the jackpot has now swollen to ~$370m.  Top 13 in history (top 6 within just Mega Millions).  We all know it’s been somber days since the global financial crisis, but the Lottery should not be the financial solution to which more Americans are increasingly turning.

Additionally there has been disarray and sorrow as we know that terrorism of all kinds is on the surge globally, with the U.S. in Orlando‬ suffering its deadliest terrorist attack since 9/11 (NY, Washington), and as dreadful as the worst shooting attacks of 2007 & 2012 (VA & CT) combined.  Yet this is training ourselves on just the worst of a grisly sliver. >99.99% of Americans won't die in either a mass shooting or a mass terrorist‬ attack (here, here, here, here), either during a Democratic or Republican administration. Even though it draws that much of our attention, while glazing at the news from a smoky bar, which will kill us.